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11月万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数(试行版)

发布时间:2016-12-02 16:01浏览次数:100Tags:财新网

声明:从2016年7月开始,中国新经济指数报告由万事达卡冠名,指数名称正式更名为:万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数。

一、指数概览

2016年11月,万事达卡财新BBD中国的新经济指数(NEI)为30.4,即新经济投入占整个经济投入的比重为30.4%。该值较10月的29.2上升1.2个百分点,回到了2016年4到6月的相对高位(图1)。NEI新经济据于以下定义:首先,高人力资本投入、高科技投入、轻资产。其次,可持续的较快增长。第三,符合产业发展方向。NEI所含行业详见第二部分和《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数技术报告》。


二、主要分项指标

NEI包括劳动力、资本和科技三项一级指标,它们在NEI中的权重分别是40%、35%和25%。11月NEI的上升主要来自资本投入的上升。资本投入指数在近半年中的波动较大,在经过上个月的下跌后,本月上升至31.9,达到了今年6月以来的最高值(图2)。劳动力投入指数从下跌至27.8,延续了从今年3月以来的下跌趋势随后,已经达到了新经济指数公布以来的最低值。科技投入指数有所上升,本月为32.2。

劳动力、资本和科技投入的变化绝对值分别为-0.4,1.4,和0.2个百分点,与权重相乘求和后,对11月NEI变化的绝对贡献值为1.2(图3)。

分行业看,NEI中占比最大的行业为新一代信息技术与信息服务产业,11月为总指数贡献了13.8个百分点,达到了今年2月以来的最高水平。金融和法律业的贡献排名第二,本月贡献6.1个百分点,生物医药产业排名第三,贡献3.8个百分点(图4)。

三、新经济就业

2016年11月,新经济行业入职平均工资水平几乎与上月持平,为8616元每月(图5)。新经济工资主要来自51job、智联招聘、拉钩、赶集网等数个招聘网站的招聘信息,即对劳动力的需求工资。

11月新经济行业招聘人数占全国总招聘人数比例进一步下降,为26.6%,新经济行业招聘总薪酬占全国总薪酬比重从30.2%略降为29.1%。新经济行业的平均入职工资水平相对于全国平均入职工资水平略有上升,10月新经济入职工资“溢价”为9.7%(图6)。

从2016年9月起,我们开始持续挖掘大数据中隐含的一些同步指标。本月我们挖掘企业招聘大数据中的“新岗位”数据。企业A在B城市招聘C岗位这三个要素定义了一个企业的招聘行为。在一个季度之内首次出现的招聘行为被称之为“新岗位”招聘。

“新岗位”招聘和“旧岗位”的招聘在许多方面都存在显著差异。“旧岗位”招聘是指一个公司在某个城市持续招聘某个职位的人员,这意味着三种可能的情况,第一可能是这部分业务的持续增长,导致该公司会不断在某个城市的某个岗位上增加人员;第二是该职位的劳动力有着较高的离职率,因此需要不断补充新职员;第三是该岗位面临较高的成本压力,因此在给定工资的情况下难以招聘到令人满意的人员,只能持续招聘。而“新岗位”的招聘则说明企业、地点和职位三者中必然有一项是新的,或者是新成立的企业,或者是开拓了新市场,或者开拓了新的业务,代表了新经济的活跃度。

从图7可以看到,在总招聘数据中,“新岗位”数量所占比重从1月开始快速上升,在3月达到顶峰,当月约60%的招聘都是“新岗位”招聘。该比例从5月开始快速下降,从7月开始,“新岗位”的比例稳定在35%左右,并在最近几个月有小幅度回升。

为了详细说明“新岗位”比例所体现的意义,我们选取数个典型城市与典型行业并画出图8和图9。在图8中可以看到,能源、电气行业的“新岗位” 比例始终保持较高水平,2016年下半年以来一直保持在40%到50%之间,代表这两个行业的新生力量较强,他们或者出现了新企业、或者布局了新城市、或者产生了新业务。而与之相反的是媒体、物流行业,下半年以来的“新岗位”比例都在20%到30%间。

在图9中也出现了类似的情景。根据2016年11月的“新岗位”比例排序,在较大城市中,前两名与最后两名分别是深圳、东莞、哈尔滨与兰州,“新岗位”比例在一定程度上能够说明这些城市中不同经济结构的贡献。

值得注意的是,“新岗位”的比例变化受季节因素的影响较大,例如春节后的岗位中属于“新岗位”的比例较高,我们接下来还将对这个指标进行深入研究。

四、城市新经济排名

2016年11月新经济总量指数城市排名前20名如图10所示,上海、北京、深圳、杭州与重庆排名前五,该排序计算每个投入指标在所有城市中的排序百分位,再将百分位加权平均,体现的是近半年城市间新经济总量排名。

图11是从2016年5月到2016年11月城市NEI平均排名,前五名为杭州、上海、北京、深圳、厦门。

更多咨询敬请联络:

万事达卡

公共关系副总裁 吴焕宇

电话:+86-10-8519-9304

电邮:Huanyu_wu@mastercard.com

财新智库

财新智库莫尼塔董事长兼首席经济学家 沈明高

电话:+86-10-8518-8170 转8618

电邮:minggaoshen@caixin.com

公关总监 马玲

电话:+86-10-8590-5204

电邮:lingma@caixin.com

BBD(数联铭品)

BBD(数联铭品)首席经济学家 陈沁

电话:+86-28-65290823

电邮:chenqin@bbdservice.com

信息图形设计 邬忆

电话:+86-28-65290823

电邮:wuyi@bbdservice.com

版权声明

万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数,是由财新智库(深圳)投资发展有限公司和成都数联铭品科技公司共同研发,与北京大学国家发展研究院合作,经过近一年努力,于2016年3月2日在北京首发的指数产品,此后每月2日上午10:00发布上月数据。

关于万事达卡:

万事达卡(纽交所股票交易代码:MA),www.mastercard.cn,是全球性的支付与科技公司。通过运营全球最快的支付处理网络,万事达卡将超过210个国家和地区的消费者、金融机构、商户、政府和企业连接在一起。万事达卡的产品和解决方案使得每个人在购物、旅行、企业经营、财务管理等日常商业活动都变得更容易、更安全和更高效。敬请关注我们的“万事达卡”官方微信以及在新浪的官方微博@万事达人,以获悉动态并参与互动。也可访问万事达卡新闻中心或万事达卡互动中心获取更多资讯。

关于财新:

财新传媒是提供财经新闻的全媒体集团,依托专业的团队和强大的原创新闻优势,以网站、移动端、期刊、视频、图书、会议等多层次的业务平台,为中国最具影响力的受众群,提供准确、全面、深入的财经新闻产品。财新智库是财新传媒通过孵化另行建立的高端金融资讯服务平台,旨在通过发展金融数据业务,壮大宏观经济研究队伍,服务于智库业务客户。详细信息,敬请浏览www.caixin.com。

关于BBD:

BBD(数联铭品)是行业领先的大数据解决方案提供商,紧密围绕新经济,通过动态尽调、信用评级、风险定价和经济指数四个步骤,BBD提供从微观到宏观的大数据服务。详细信息,敬请浏览:http://www.bbdservice.com。

报告英文版:

MasterCard Caixin BBD China NewEconomy Index

In an effort to increase transparency on the structural changesunderway in China’s economy, the MasterCard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index(NEI) was established. The subject of a year of research, the NEI was firstpublicly released on March 2, 2016 and will be issued the 2nd ofevery month at 10:00am China Standard Time.

Overview

InNovember 2016, the MasterCard Caixin BBD New Economy Index (NEI) reading camein at 30.4, indicating that the New Economy accounted for 30.4% of overalleconomic input activities that month. This reading recorded a 120 basis pointincrease from October, returning to April to June levels (Chart 1).

PrimaryInputs

TheNEI includes labor, capital and technology inputs that account for 40%, 35% and25% of the total weight of the index, respectively. Among the primary inputs,the increase in the November NEI reading came mainly from a rise in capitalinvestment. While capital investment has fluctuated widely in recent months, itclimbed to 31.9 in November, a six month high (Chart 2). The labor input indexfell to 27.8, continuing a declining trend since March and marks the lowestreading since the NEI has been released. The technology input increasedslightly to 32.2.

Percentagechanges in labor, capital and technology inputs were -0.4, 1.4 and 0.2percentage points, respectively. After accounting for the sum of theirweightings, the net result for the NEI was a 1.2 pp increase from the previousmonth (Chart 3).

Lookingat the sub-sectors, the New IT industry formed the largest proportion of theNew Economy Index, contributing 13.8 pp to NEI, the highest figure sinceFebruary. Finance & Legal Services remained at second, contributing 6.1percentage points. The third largest contributor was biotech with 3.8 pp (Chart4).

NewEconomy Employment

InNovember 2016, the average monthly entry level salary of the New Economy wasRMB 8,616 per month, even with the previous two months’ figures (Chart 5). NewEconomy wage information is compiled from online websites of career platformsand recruitment services including 51job and Zhaopin, as well as other sitesthat list job demands.

Hiringin the New Economy sectors accounted for 26.6% of total hiring in November,continuing the decline from previous months. The compensation share of NewEconomy sectors decreased slightly, from 30.2% to 29.1%. The entry level salarypremium of the New Economy was 9.7% as compared to economy-wide counterparts(Chart 6).


FromSeptember onwards, we have used big data sources to examine several concurrentindicators of labor demand. We continue to examine the ‘hiring for newpositions’ in the labor market. The criteria for a new position hire is when acompany fills a new type of job post within one quarter.

Newposition and old position hires have a number of different implications forlabor demand. Filling an old position persistently has three implications: 1) abusiness unit is seeing sustained growth and hires additional employees butthere are no new job types created; 2) a job that has high turnover in nature,requiring constant hiring to refill the position; 3) companies facing high costpressures are not compensating employees satisfactorily, leading to highturnover which can only be mitigated with constant rehiring. New position hiringon the other hand, suggests that either a newly started business is hiring oran existing firm is expanding their operations into new areas or is physicallyexpanding into new cities and markets. All of these outcomes imply viablegrowth within the New Economy.

As can be seen from Chart 7, theproportion of new position hires increased rapidly in the beginning of the yearand peaked in March, forming nearly 60% of total new job hires in that month.The ratio declined after May but has stabilized around the 35% mark in recentmonths.

Tofurther illustrate the implication of new position hires, we break down theproportion of new hires by industry and city. In Chart 8, the energy and powergeneration sectors have seen higher levels of new hires, at 40% and 50%respectively, in the second half of 2016. This implies these two industries areseeing growth momentum through either new enterprises, expansion into newmarkets, or new services offered. Media and logistics & transportation, onthe other hand, have seen a lower share of new position hiring, at 20% and 30%respectively.

Similarlyin Chart 9, we list the top and bottom two cities in new position hiring bycity. The rankings, in some respect, reflect different economic structureswithin these cities. Pearl River Delta cities Shenzhen and Dongguan top thelist, while heavy industry centric Harbin and resource scarce Lanzhou languishat the bottom.

Itis undeniable that seasonal factors may have had an influence, especially giventhe spike in new position hires after the Chinese New Year period. Seasonalinfluences are worth further analysis throughout the hiring cycle over thecourse of the year.

CityRankings of the New Economy

Basedon overall New Economy rankings, the top twenty cities are shown in Chart 10.The top five cities are Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chongqing.Rankings are based on a moving average of the percentile rank of indicators forthe city in the past 6 months.


Whenlooking at the city NEI rankings based on average NEI from May to November of2016, the top five remain unchanged and are Hangzhou, Shanghai, Beijing,Shenzhen, and Xiamen. Guangzhou was very close to Xiamen at 6th (Chart 11).

For further information please contact:

MasterCard
Mr. Wu Huanyu, Vice President of Public Relations
Tel: +86-10-8519-9304
Email: Huanyu_wu@mastercard.com

Caixin Insight Group
Dr. Minggao Shen, President & Chief Economist
Tel: +86-10-8104-8016
Email: minggaoshen@caixin.com

Ma Ling, Public Relations
Tel: +86-10-8590-5204
Email: lingam@caixin.com

BBD
Chen Qin, Chief Economist
Tel:+86-28-65290823
Email:chenqin@bbdservice.com

Wu Yi, Data & ChartDesigner

Tel:+86-28-65290823

Email: wuyi@bbdservice.com

The MasterCard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index is the fruit of a research partnership between Caixin Insight Group and BBD, in collaboration with the National Development School, Peking University. The subject of a year of research, the NEI was first publically released on March 2, 2016 and will be issued the 2nd of every month at 10:00am China Standard Time.

About Caixin

Caixin Media is China's leading media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile applications, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin Media aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms. Caixin Insight Group is a high-end financial data and analysis platform. For more information, please visit www.caixin.com.

About MasterCard

MasterCard (NYSE: MA), www.mastercard.com, is a technology company in the global payments industry. We operate the world’s fastest payments processing network, connecting consumers, financial institutions, merchants, governments and businesses in more than 210 countries and territories. MasterCard’s products and solutions make everyday commerce activities – such as shopping, traveling, running a business and managing finances – easier, more secure and more efficient for everyone. Follow us on Twitter @MasterCardAP and @MasterCardNews, join the discussion on the Beyond the Transaction Blog and subscribe for the latest news on the Engagement Bureau.

About BBD (Business Big Data)

BBD is a leading Big Data and quantitative business analytics firm specializing in the analysis of the high-growth industries emerging in Mainland China. Through dynamic data tracking, credit analysis, risk pricing and economic index construction, BBD provides its clients with a wide range of services at both the macro and micro level. For more information, please visit http://www.bbdservice.com/.

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